Four More years!

four more years

The Quinnipiac/CBS/NY times poll, and the recent Washington Post poll, and the NBC/Wall Street Jounal/Marrist poll are all over-representing Democrat Party registered voters and and using 2008 turnout figures in their sampling and reporting base projections, Cab Driver.

Counter balance them with the ABC commissioned poll, the Gallup tracking polls, and the Rasmussen tracking polls of likely voters, and you get a much closer race nationally and in the swing states, with only slight advantages to Obama.

There are something like 80 to 85 separate national polls being taken each month in total, and Politico does the noble job of trying to keep track of them all and provide an average in their poll reporting. One would do well to pay attention to the Politico averaging figures, I would suggest.

If the Obama internal polls had him in a 10 to 12 point lead at this point in the game and pulling away, he never would have been taking the risk of saying something damaging (like his "Bumps in the Road" comment regarding the assignations in Libya by resurgent Islamic terrorists and assaults on our embassies and consulates throughout the Muslim world, "You didn't build it", or "The private sector is doing fine" stupidities, or dreaming up another phrase like "leading from behind" in foreign affairs) by campaigning yesterday in Ohio and Virginia, instead of getting down to his debate preparations.

Reviewing trends is more informative that isolated polls. Both RealClearPolitics and Polltracker give running averages of the major polls. I think they should “lag” both Rasmussen and Gallup since they are themselves “moving averages” rather than snapshots of voter opinion – still this approach gave good results in past years. The real question is Rasmussen. Reviewing the running averages of the major polls – either something happened at or around September 6^th or it didn’t. Rasmussen thinks nothing happened – everyone else thinks that something did. If nothing really happened – I would expect the graphs to look more like parallel lines with ½% or so variation back and forth. (Graph points are averages so the variation is smoothed out to some degree.) Distance between the lines would be the Democrat/Republican polling “bias”. (You can set the RealClear graph to just show the dates between September 1^st and September 27^th.) That’s not what shows – instead you see, on average, an ever increasing spread from the first of the month – zero to around 4% today. A relatively stable spread you can blame on a liberal or conservative bias by the pollsters - however, if it continues to grow …

Ha Ha Ha, Oh 'Keys2Laundry,' You are so hilarious! You grasp for straws by repeating the lame talking points of Fox and El Rusbo when it comes to the POTUS. Trying to micro-analyize everything he says. The problem is no one is buying it.

On the other hand Mittens really is screwing up by insulting our allies in the U.K. while visiting them abroad, insulting the Palestinians while in Israel, insulting the families of the heroes assassinated in our embassy, insulting 47% of America, insulting the military and their families on multiple occasions, by not mentioning them at all, referring to them as a laundry list etc.

The polls are accurate 'Keys2Laundry.' I know you hate to admit you are an intellectual elite and that's why you deny statistical math, science, real economic theory, facts, failed and successful political policies, critical thought, etc., but perhaps you will come back around...just kidding, you're hopeless! Ha Ha Ha!

Sorry to disagree - Romney is not a victim - he gladly signed up. He could have stayed at Bain and made more money - but he wants to be president. Even now, he could drop out of the election. The 47% video caught him sharing a moment of honesty with his "equals". If he is twisted now, he was twisted before. I admire your compassion but think I will save mine for the 47%

Romney left Bain Caital to rescue the Olympics as a need for national pride instead of disgrace on the heels of 9/11; he went on to turn his leadrship talents and executive acumen learned and finely honed in his very successful business caree at Bain Capital to turning around the fortunes of his home state of Massachusetts as Governor, and he took on both those jobs gratis, without drawing a single dollar of salary. How much more unselfish and service providing can you get then that, Adam? BTW, even Bill Clinton is fully appreciative of the "sterling" career Romney had at the private equity firm Bain Capital, and was very appreciative of his accomplishments as Governor of Massachusetts for his ability to balance a previously unbalanced budget, and leave his successor a rainy day fund, improve that states new job growth from 51st, worst in the nation when he took office to 30th in the nation when he left, and cut taxes, putting a dent in the derogatory term for Massachusetts of Taxachusetts under Dukakis and a very top heavy Democrat Party controlled free spending legislature, which Romney had to work out bi-partisan agreements with to do what he did to improve the states fiscal and economic and educational conditions. Noteworthy, two Romney created programs, his state youth corps that went on to be the forerunner for AmeriCorps at the national level, and the Massachusetts Health Insurance Reform program went on to be copied in part at the national level, This selfless executive and leader is a doer, not a talker, and it is a sin that the liberal media and the Obama Chicago style politicians have waged a campaign of sullying his reputation and character and accomplishments at the so critical time in our nations current distress, when real leadership is so much in need!

In one regard, Romney embodies the expectation expressed by Obama and the leftists that if you have gained from the nations economy in the past, to say enough is enough, and then give back, in dollars and service. And that is exactly the Romney that I see, from his taxes paid, both Federal and State income taxes, Federal minimum alternative taxes, State and local sales and property taxes, and his willingness to take on with great success national and State positions of service without payment.

@Adam_Selene I had hoped my sarcasm was pretty evident in my post, please reread. I am one of the 47%. However I am a little tired of the video. I have seen almost zero coverage of the protests and investigation in libya, why is that? Just sayin;)

It has been pointed out to me, in the past, that my <snark> button is inoperative. I'll look closer next time.

Statistically tied in the polls with Obama, down manageable levels in some key states 2% to 5% by Politico's averaging of the instate pulbic polls, with the better part of 6 weeks left to go, $40 to $50 million more available in campaign funds and better financed PACs then Obama for the home stretch campaign intensity and turn out the vote efforts, and on the attack on the failed policies and really rotten record Obama is burdened with. Is that the picture of a candidate that needs to make a RADICAL strike in a moment of the three debates ahead> Really, steelie guide? You must be new to this game.

Take it from somone that has been an close observor and a participant in the organizations of candidates for the Presidency of the United States since 1960; this is not a bad position to be in at all at this still very early point in the campaign that the voters are just now beginning to turn in to in reasonable numbers, while showing some degree of lessened enthusiasm for the whole nastiness of this business of electing another President and Congress.