Ed Andrieski/AP Photo
President Obama at a campaign rally in Golden, Colorado on Thursday.
As the campaigns head into the final sprint to election day, new poll numbers suggest Mitt Romney's still got some catching up to do in three key states.
According to the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls, President Obama leads Mitt Romney in Florida, Ohio and Virginia — post summer slog, post-conventions, post-Eastwooding.
Breaking down the numbers by state-by-state, Obama opened up a five point lead in Florida, 49 to 44 percent. He's holding steady against Romney in Virginia, 49 to 44 percent. And he's got an even bigger lead of seven points in Ohio, a state which benefited from Obama's auto bailout, 50 to 43 percent.
Obama carried all these states in 2008, but George W. Bush also carried them in 2004. They're crucial this election.
With just 54 days to go until the election, it's go time. However, it's totally not impossible for Romney to pull it off.
NBC News calculated Romney must win at least two of these crucial states, if not all of them, to reach the magic 270 electoral votes to get the keys to the White House.
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Of course, these are the states where the Obama campaign and the Obama PACs concentrated their attack add campaign on Romney's character and his business and governorship reputation, lying their heads off according to the Washington Post and other reputable media all Spring and Summer and into the Conventions. And Romney's campaign just last week began to advertise there, post conventions. There will be an expected blip to Obama's favor due to the issues of the nationals populace rallying to their President during times of trouble abroad with the latest issues in the Middle East...that is expected. Just remember, Jimmy Carter, that other failed Democrat Party President led Ronald Reagan in the polls straight thru the campaign season up until 10 days before the election in 1980, and then Reagan took the lead, and never looked back. I've counted 20+ post topics here in just the past few days, and none have dealt with the three big issues that the voters say they are most concerned with: 1) the terrible state of our economy, 2) the persistently high unemployment rate, and 3) the runaway deficit spending leading to a disastrous national debt level. Signs of this networks desperation that the liberal media and MSNBC's Last Word blog especially don't want to discuss those issues, if you ask me.
But I'll be content to await the averaging of the polls, especially after we hear from Quinipiac and Rasmussen.
By all means take some comfort from Rasmussen... But in case there are children watching, here's an analysis of Rasmussen's bias by Nate Silver, who's a real pollster... This an analysis from 2010...
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/
On Tuesday, polls conducted by the firm Rasmussen Reports — which released more than 100 surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, including some commissioned under a subsidiary on behalf of Fox News — badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates.
And it may come as a surprise to Grandpa, but Andrew Sullivan still considers himself a conservative... Here's one titled "Living in Rassmussen Land":
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/08/living-in-rasmussen-land.html
Sullivan quotes Hinderacker here in noting just how out-of-step Rasmussen is...
[In Rasmussen Polls] Romney has generally led Obama ever since he became the clear front-runner for the GOP nomination.
Dissolve to that shot of the Rev. Al standing in front of the bridge he's peddling... Or if you want, I've got one of the ol' police interceptor with that scenic beachfront property along the Great Salt Lake, only two miles from a world class hunting club...
Well, I'm watching Lawrence right now (after the Yankees shutout the cellar-dwelling Red Sox to keep a chunk of first place), and he notes even Fox acknowledges Obama has a lead. We now get to see how Bill O'Reilly handles that one....
Ah, O'Reilly has Dick Morris predicting a Romney win even though the Fox Poll shows Obama up by six points...
And, of course, the Romney campaign has been sooooo truthful over these past months.
Seems to me that the 2010 elections had the Republican sweeping the Congressional district elections in the toss up areas, and some of Senate elections also. And we know how the Governorships and state legislatures broke for the Republicans. So what exactly was the predictive element of the Rasmussen polls in 2010 (which focus on likely voters instead of just registered voters for its base distribution) that ran afoul of pollster Nate Silver, who is, of course, talking up his book, Cab Driver?
As to Rev. Al, he tried to sell a few bridges with his involvement in the Tawanhy Brawley and Duke Lacrosse players rape hysteria cases, and he isn' t any better a bridge seller in political issues, either, though he sure looks the huckster type that would try it.
How Lawrence can FLAT OUT LIE to his 3 viewers is beyond me! Come on Loony Larry...tell them the truth that NBC/WSJ oversample Dems by 10% or more in their polls! "Forget about Lawrence and MSNBC's skewed polling data that shows huge leads for Obama due to oversampling Democrats and then they pass it off and lie to you Liberal sheep! Let's focus on more realistic data and unskewed polls with more likely voters! Hey Liberals....WE'RE COMING!!!"
Romney is done when FOX says he is down 5 points it is higher than that
President Obama isn't a Jimmy Carter and Romney is certainly no Ronald Reagan.
And a huge critical difference between the economy of 1980 and of today is the misery index, which is the combination of the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation. Even with today's high unemployment rate, the misery index is 9.71. In November 1980, the misery index was 20.15.
You're right and I'm with you on that ("President Obama isn't a Jimmy Carter and Romney is certainly no Ronald Reagan"). I'm pleased that Pres. Obama is ahead in the polls but I'm still baffled that there's still too many Republicans that no matter what Gov. Romney say or do (gaffes, lies and all), they are sticking with the guy. That tells me that President Obama's problem is not his performance or his speeches, his problem is the color of his skin. The Republicans are willing to ignore what Romney will do to social security or Medicare, as long as they see President Obama lose, they are happy.
The interest rates in Nov, 1980 were 20.15; while the cost of living was high, and the unemployment rate not so much in 1980, they certainly did not total 2015. But if you are measuring the misery index as the combination of the unemployment rate and the cost of annual cost living increase ratio each month, the misery index is up by nearly 0.9 points in Aug, 2012 over what it was in Jan, 2009 when Obama took office. And the recent spike in food and gasoline prices, which the federal government has recently acted to mute even nore than they did before when compiling their statistical measure of the cost of living increases, aren't adequately represented in that current misery index figure. But, luckily, people vote their pocketbooks, and not what the arcane statistics on the economy might be saying to them. The voters live in the real world that the denizens of the offices of the federal government and its Congress and the White House don't get close to visiting, Jerry.
Why in the world would anyone vote for that plutocrat Romney? A guy who destroyed American companies, sent US jobs to China and India, kept his profits in foreign banks, thereby ruining the American economy.
I don't think the low information voters quite get what Romney & Bain did with companies is no different than what the banks did with home-owners. Convince them to take out loans, get their cut, let the home-owner to drown in their own debt, and then snatch up the house and sell it for pennies on the dollar. It's Wall Street thievery all over again.
You are of course one of those low information voters, Lurchz, as you clearly are opertating based on the lies of the Obama attack adds. What an ignoramous. You are the kind of voter who deserves what you got in 2008.
It's true Obama is not another Jimmie Carter he is worse. Alll the Hype about Bain and Romney tax returns is just a distraction being used to avoid talking about how much debt Obama has given us his first three years in office, unemployment being over 8% for that past 40 months, the Dem's (Harry Reid and company) not putting together a budget in three years, the House voting down a budget Obama put up that was so bad even the Dem's voted against it and on and on, which only goes to show how bad a Prisedent he is. With Obama hope and change has become fear and doubt.
Florida, Virginia and Ohio; one can only continue to pray to God that Romney will come
out on top. Obama needs to pack his bags and go back to Chicago. I don't think
the country can take another four years of him. Oh and by the way,
"GOD," is a word Obama seem to have a hard time saying or giving
credit when he quote scriptures from the bible. He chokes a little each time he
utters the word.
Newest economic data is that the average middle class family's income is down an additional $300, to a total drop of $4,300 in annual income since Obama took office. I'm not sure if the middle class can take anymore of what Obama has to give them, as he "concentrates" on the middle class in his Presidency. Notably, in the long slide that has been underway since the late 80s, the average middle class only lost $1,000 during the whole 8 years of the George W. Bush Administration in annual income. Of course, the George Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 had something to do with that!
Americans that were killed in Libya brought back home to lay to rest,we all pray, o lord, grant those who have died the joy of your presence,and may their soul rest in peace (AMEN).And God bestows his mercies on their families.Right wing continues their attack on the president,under illusion that they are going to win this election by dishonest,lying, deceptive and delusive,they are conspiracy theorists.
Well, you stated out well enough, adekola. And we all echo your well spoken sentiment regarding the return to our shores of the assassinated Americans, and God's blessings on their families.
But the gloves are coming off, and the blows are going to be harder, so better steel yourself up for it. As to the dishonest lying, deceptive and delusive (?) campaigning, that rather describes the Obama attack campaign assisted by the liberal media all Spring and Summer on Gov. Romney's character, business and former government successful career. Romney/Ryan are pointing to the problems with Obama's handling of our nations problems, both at home and abroad, and his misconceived policies that have made thing worse, rather than better as he claims. That is what campaigns and elections are about. The incumbent supports his record if he is asking for reelection, and the challenger challenges that record. The personality and character issues are hopefully now left behind, and the media should do its job of assuring that the claims and counterclaims are truthful, and based on facts and figures, and not myths and rhetoric.