by Jared Bernstein

COMMENTARY

I hesitate to weigh in on such foolishness—I’m a strong advocate of not shooting everything that moves—but this seems to have some legs: I was on the Thomas Roberts show this morning, where they showed a tweet of Jack Welch, the former CEO of G.E. and a Mitt Romney backer, suggesting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics was cooking the books on the employment report to help the President.

As I said on air, Jack Welch should be ashamed of himself. The BLS is an institution with tremendous integrity, and with very deep procedures and methods to ensure the most accurate, unbiased, and and confidential collection, analysis, and reporting of data known to this or any other country. 

You want proof?  Go to their website and find me one document among the hundreds of thousands up there that show any political leanings one way or the other—it’s all “just the facts, ma’am.” Then—and I’m talking to you, Jack—look at their survey methods and explain to me how they’re cooking the books, and at what stage the fix is going in.

Tune in tonight at 10pm ET for a special Friday edition of The Last Word. We'll discuss the long-awaited September jobs report, which puts the current unemployment rate at 7.8 percent — the lowest it's been since President Obama took the oath of office in 2009. It's a nice pick-me-up for Team Obama after the president's so-so debate performance.

• Unemployment rate falls to 7.8 percent as economy creates 114,000 jobs
• September jobs report: Debunking the jobs report conspiracy theories
• Solid jobs report spawns crackpot 'job truthers' movement
• Jobs news makes President Obama’s case easier
• Jobless rate drop no big surprise, despite the political racket
• Paul Ryan: "Let's make this country a tax shelter"
• Bob Kerrey gets quirky endorsement from Steve Martin

Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

The jobless rate dropped to 7.8 percent, the lowest level since President Obama took office.

Where do the "jobs" numbers come from and what's this conspiracy about? Here is some background on how the whole process works. 

I loved this the first time The New York Times published it — a simple explanation about the super-secret process of reporting the nation's Employment Situation Summary, a.k.a. the "Jobs Report" and the "Unemployment Rate" from the bureau of labor and statistics. The cloak and dagger method in detail is below. 

Read it and you will have something to say when your friends start quoting Jack Welch and Rep. Allen West who are among a host of conservatives that are starting conspiracy theories that the 7.8 percent jobs number for September is some politically-timed conspiracy meant to help President Obama's re-election campaign.

Rep. Allen West tweeted:

In regards to today's Jobs report — I agree with former GE CEO Jack Welch, Chicago style politics is at work here... 

Well, who are the people tabulating the numbers? TPM asked.

Betsey Stevenson, a former chief economist at the Department of Labor under President Obama, said in a phone interview with TPM that the conspiracy theories were misguided in just about every way possible. For starters, the Bureau of Labor Statistics isn’t currently run by a political appointee. For most of Obama’s term, the commissioner was a holdover appointed by President Bush. The current acting commissioner John Gavin is a career BLS economist, not an Obama appointee.

And where do the actual numbers come from? I found this simplified version here.

•The unemployment rate is derived from telephone survey of households; respondents are asked about their employment situation and whether they are looking for a job. (Unemployed who are no longer looking aren't counted in this number)

•The jobs report is derived from a larger survey of businesses owners who report their hiring activity for the month.

•That's why the unemployment rate could decline, as it did in April, at the same time employers reported a net 3,100 job losses

Now for the fun stuff, If you want to know the secret process, continue reading.

After repeatedly defending his secretly taped description of 47 percent of Americans as “victims, dependent on government,” who don’t take responsibility for their lives, Mitt Romney appeared on Fox News Thursday evening and changed his tune, saying his comments were “completely wrong.”

Sean Hannity asked Romney what he would have said if Obama had brought up the damaging comments during the first presidential debate on Wednesday. 

“Clearly, in a campaign with hundreds, if not thousands, of speeches and question and answer sessions, now and then you’re going to say something that doesn’t come out right. In this case, I said something that’s just completely wrong," Romney replied. "And I absolutely believe that my life has shown that I care about the 100 percent. That’s been demonstrated throughout my life and this whole campaign is about the 100 percent.”

At the first 2012 presidential debate, Mitt Romney stunned President Obama and the viewing audience with a solid performance and a few whoopers to boot.

The candidates spent a good deal of time arguing over the cost of Mitt Romney tax plan. "I'm not in favor of a $5 trillion tax cut. That's not my plan,” said Romney in one factually-challenged moment, backing away from his proposal. "My plan is not to put in place any tax cut that will add to the deficit."

The non-partisan Tax Policy Center determined Romney's plan would cost $4.8 trillion over the next 10 years.

The former Massachusetts governor proposed keeping the Bush-era tax cuts and slashing all rates across the board by 20 percent. Romney said closing loopholes in the tax code and getting rid of certain tax deductions would cover the costs. Which ones those are remain as much of a mystery as his unreleased tax returns.

President Obama called him out over his lack of clarity and shoddy math skills:

"For 18 months, he's been running on this tax plan, and now, five weeks before the election, he's saying that his big bold idea is never mind? And the fact that if you are lowering the rates the way you describe Governor then it is not possible to come up with enough deductions and loopholes that only affect high income individuals to avoid either raising the deficit or burdening the middle class. It's math. It's arithmetic."

Before Obama and Romney were even born,  President Franklin D. Roosevelt warned about those who gloss over the facts. Speaking to the Democratic convention during his 1936 reelection campaign, FDR cautioned voters to be wary of smooth talkers and their deals that are just too good to true:

"Let me warn you and let me warn the nation against the smooth evasion which says, 'Of course we believe all these things; we believe in social security; we believe in work for the unemployed; we believe in saving homes. Cross our hearts and hope to die, we believe in all these things; but we do not like the way the present Administration is doing them. Just turn them over to us. We will do all of them- we will do more of them we will do them better; and, most important of all, the doing of them will not cost anybody anything.'"

FDR put the smack down on the false notion of gambling social programs and it won’t cost anyone a dime. Like President Obama now, FDR faced similar challenges leading the country out of a major economic crisis.

MSNBC's Lawrence O’Donnell spoke to Sen. Rob Portman, who played the role of President Obama during Mitt Romney's debate-prep sessions, to discuss the candidates' performances in Denver and what to expect in the next two debates.

"The dynamic of the race changes," Portman said following the big political event. "Gov. Romney did so well and was able to talk about the future in a way that was persuasive to undecided voters — but there are three debates." He suggested Obama was off his game in the first go-around.

"I thought he seemed a little uncomfortable, to be honest," he said. "As president, you're not used to getting asked questions, whether it's by Jim Lehrer, or Lawrence O’Donnell, or Mitt Romney."

Some Democrats, including Obama adviser David Axelrod, argued Romney's admission that he would, in fact, turn Medicare into a voucher program was a major victory for the president. But Portman didn't think so.

"Mitt Romney did a really good job pointing out that [his Medicare plan] doesn't affect seniors who are currently on Medicare, at all. In fact, it doesn't affect folks who are near Medicare. But for those who are younger than that, they’ll have a choice."

Portman said he plans to continue debate-prep sessions with Romney through the third debate. When asked about the second, town-hall style debate, Portman conceded "it was a good format for President Obama."

Which candidate stole the show with a better performance? Take our Last Word poll now.

The day after the first presidential debate, President Obama tried to rally support in Denver, Colorado. He told the crowd,"If you want to be president, you owe the American people the truth." The president went on to say Mitt Romney does not want to be held accountable to what he's been saying on the campaign trail "because he knows full well that we don’t want what he’s selling." We'll have the latest from the campaign trail at 10 pm ET.

• NBC Truth squad: Fact-checking the debate
• Debate thrusts Big Bird into the presidential campaign
• After sluggish presidential debate, a more combative Obama appears at Denver rally
• President Obama: Guy on stage was not the 'real Mitt Romney'
• At last night's debate: Romney told 27 myths in 38 minutes
• Colorado presidential debate: Media piles on moderator Jim Lehrer
• James Lipton on debate performances: A new Romney debuts
• KitchenAid apologizes for dead grandma Obama debate tweet

Jim Urquhart/Reuters

President Obama and Mitt Romney during the first presidential debate Wednesday in Denver, Colorado.

Fact checking Romney will happen today and so will debate over the president's performance. Here are a few notable quotes on that.

Jonathan Capehart: The substance of what he said wont stand up to scrutiny. Folks are already pointing out that Romney disavowed his $5 trillion tax plan. Meanwhile President Obama is catching hell for his performance.

David Gergen: I think (the president) was so surprised that he thought (Romney) was just sort of flat-out lying — that he never proposed a 20 percent tax cut.

Taegan Goddard's Political Wire points out these two:

Jonathan Chait of New York Magazine says Mitt Romney's two biggest pivots to the center in last night's debate were not true by his own campaign's admission.

"Romney won the debate in no small part because he adopted a policy of simply lying about his policies. Probably the best way to understand Obama's listless performance is that he was prepared to debate the claims Romney has been making for the entire campaign, and Romney switched up and started making different and utterly bogus ones. Obama, perhaps, was not prepared for that, and he certainly didn't think quickly enough on his feet to adjust to it."

Think Progress: Pundits from both sides of the aisle have lauded Mitt Romney's strong debate performance, praising his preparedness and ability to challenge President Obama's policies and accomplishments. But, Romney only accomplished this goal by repeatedly misleading viewers. He spoke for 38 minutes of the 90 minute debate and told at least 27 myths.

You can see where this is going. More on The Last Word tonight for sure.

In a low-key and often wonkish presidential debate on Wednesday, Mitt Romney distanced himself from his own plans, but received only intermittent push-back from a subdued President Obama.

Obama started out strong at the Denver debate, nipping at Mitt Romney for the Republican's tax plan, which would reportedly cut $5 trillion in tax revenue and add $2 trillion in military spending. Obama insisted the move would pulverize middle-class families or balloon the deficit.

"How we pay for that, reduce the deficit and make the investments that we need to make without dumping those costs on to middle-class Americans, I think is one of the central questions of the campaign," the president said.

Romney, however, insisted that he doesn't have a $5 trillion tax cut in his plan, and that he won't reduce the taxes paid by the wealthiest Americans. On the stump, Romney has pushed to lower everyone's tax rates by 20%, an amount independent groups say will reduce federal revenue by $5 trillion over the next decade.

Obama charged that for the past year-and-half, his opponent has been running on such a tax plan and now his "big, bold idea is 'never mind.'" 

Someone was bound to come up with this. Got any ideas for other rules? Add them below.

Charlie Neibergall / AP

Tonight, Mitt Romney will challenge incumbent President Obama for 90 minutes on domestic policy issues at the first presidential debate. Jim Lehrer of the PBS NewsHour will be the official moderator, but it seems there are many pundits, journalists, and policy experts who would like to take his seat. Here's a compilation of some of the best "Jim Lehrer should ask this at the debate tonight" questions floating around the web:

Robert Reich, Fmr. Secretary of Labor:
You've said that you have used every legal method to reduce your tax liability. You've also said that as president you would close tax loopholes in order to help finance a major across-the-board tax cut. What specific tax loopholes have you used that you would close?

John Healey, LA Times:
Is there a conflict between trying to get the economy moving again and narrowing the federal budget deficit? If so, where should Washington's focus be -- on growth or the rising debt?

Doyle McManus, LA Times:
Is there anything your opponent has proposed in this campaign that you would support?

John Hudak, Brookings Institution:
Transportation systems and infrastructure in the U.S. support the economic lives of businesses and consumers. Lately, infighting in Congress has changed a formerly bipartisan issue into a highly partisan one, leaving transportation underfunded and in need of assistance. What role do you see for the federal government in the context of transportation and what specific plans do you have to fulfill that role?

Aviva Shen, ThinkProgress:
How will you reconcile the federal government’s War on Drugs with state-level legalization efforts?

David Callahan, Demos:
Do you think economic inequality in America is a problem and, if so, how would you address it?

If you have the urge to back-seat moderate, too, leave your own questions for Jim Lehrer in the comments below.

If somehow you missed the hype, there was a big Internet tease yesterday by Drudge and The Daily Caller that there would be a big bombshell video released at 9 pm ET on a certain television program that would change the dynamics of the race using race. So one day later, what is the reaction? Here are some headlines:

• Washington Post, Post Partisan: Daily Caller Plays the Race Card Badly
• The Atlantic: President Obama and the Race Obsessed Right
• Huffington Post, David Linkins: Drudge, Daily Caller Hype Old Obama Speech, Trolling Entire Political World
• Huffington Post Politics: Conservatives' Hyped Up Obama Attack Falls Flat
• Gawker: The Art of the Code-Switch: Obama Morphs for His Audience Just Like You Do
• Daily Beast, Howard Kurtz: Conservative Outlets Push Old Video of Barack Obama Talking About the Poor
• Daily Beast, Andrew Sullivan: The Decline and Fall of Tucker Carlson
• Politico, Glenn Thrush et al: Video potential worry for Obama campaign
• Politico, Dylan Byers: Media gives little play to Obama 2007 tape
• Rush Limbaugh: Why Mr. Roads and Bridges Hates Suburbia
• New York Times, Michael Shear: Obama’s Wright Ties Highlighted Again

What does President Obama mean when he "waves the ball?" What is Mitt Romney trying to convey when he does the "tilt and nod?" While millions of American's will be listening to what the candidates say tonight, it may be just as important to watch how they say it.

The New York Times posted a neat guide breaking down the common forms of body language each candidate uses. According to their analysis, Obama's movements tend to be a little more "controlled," which can come off as assertive and at the same time, suggest his path would be a more difficult one. Romney's gestures, however, tend to be more "free-flowing," thereby encouraging the listener to get on board with his ideas.

New York Times